THE COLD WEATHER THIS WINTER IS NOT EVIDENCE THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS NO GREAT PROBLEM

Dear Met Office.  I am a member of a climate change group in Lancashire.  We are holding an exhibition later this month and wanted some leaflets, preferably provided by you but if not written by us on the basis of information provided.  In particular I wondered whether you could direct me to information on two points. (1)  For many people the present cold weather is proof positive that global warming is a lot of nonsense.  Christopher Booker is having a field day.  But we know that this is a misconception and that the present cold is caused by complex factors which do not affect the overall upward trend.  Can you point me towards information in simple terms that answers Booker?  (2)  Nigel Lawson in An Appeal to Reason quotes figures provided by Hadley that show there has been no overall increase in temperature during the first decade of this century despite rises in carbon emissions. There is therefore no connection.  In September reports appeard in the papers saying that the Met Office had refuted him, and that the present lull is being caused by el Nino and la Nina phenomena.  Do you have fuller information about this?  I thought that el Nino and la Nino only lasted at most for three or four years, not for a decade.
 
Would be grateful for any help.  Thomas Jackson.

Dear Thomas,

The present cold spell should not, per se, be considered proof that 'global warming' is not happening.  Global warming is a long-term phenomenon, and the trend will always be masked by short-term variations such as what we are seeing at the moment.  Variations on many different time-scales contribute to our weather and climate.  (2) There may have been little or no increase in mean global temperatures during this decade, but it is still true to say that most of the warmest years, globally, have happened within the last 15 years.  Again, statistical 'noise' has a part to play in this, but the complex prediction models which have been run by the Hadley Centre do suggest some probability of 'lulls' in the overall trend.  Most el-Nino and la Nina events do indeed only last a couple of years, but there are other interactions playing a part in our weather.  For all the cold over the UK at the moment, it is likely that some other parts of the world will be experiencing above-average warmth at any given time.

Kind Regards,

Suzanne.
(On behalf of an expert).

Weather Desk Advisor
Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Devon, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.